Ember

Ember is a market-prediction platform that runs multiple AI models separately and publishes their probability estimates on real-money markets such as Polymarket. Predictions are recorded publicly and permanently, with clear outcomes, deadlines and disproof conditions so there’s no ambiguity about what counts as success or failure.

The platform’s “Arena” posts three independent models on each market, treating their disagreements as signals rather than problems. Ember highlights cases where a model’s probability differs from market consensus by 10 percentage points or more. Daily inputs come from over 19 sources, including prediction markets, bookmaker odds, AI research, social sentiment and other live indicators.

Accuracy is tracked using Brier scores and every prediction stays locked after publishing, so the record includes both hits and misses. Access is freemium: the free tier shows past predictions and outcomes, while paid tiers give earlier signals, more visibility into model reasoning, APIs and options for custom prediction requests.

• Official site
• Arena with three independent AI models
• Daily data from 19+ sources
• Permanent, timestamped predictions and Brier-score tracking
• Free viewing plus paid early access, APIs and custom requests